Wildfire Risk is Evolving: How Consumers can Prepare

As we move into 2026, wildfire risk remains a growing concern for homeowners across the United States. While wildfires are often associated with the West, recent data shows that fire risk is expanding into more regions, overlapping with other severe weather threats, and becoming more expensive for households nationwide.

Wildfire preparedness must adapt and extend beyond just reacting during fire season. It should include understanding regional risk trends, taking steps to reduce exposure, and planning financially for evacuation, recovery, and rebuilding. Even in years with “normal” wildfire activity, a single fast-moving fire can upend lives and create long-lasting financial strain.

Severe weather losses are rising 

Wildfires are just one component of a broader increase in severe weather losses across the U.S. In 2025 alone, the country experienced $101.4 billion in damages from severe weather events as of June, according to Climate Central. Those losses came from just 14 major events, including early-year wildfires in Los Angeles and widespread tornadoes and severe storms across large portions of the country.

This pattern matters for homeowners because it shows how a small number of extreme events can cause significant financial damage. Rising losses are being driven by several factors:

• Longer and more unpredictable wildfire seasons
• More homes built near forests, grasslands, and open space
• Higher construction and repair costs
• Increased costs for temporary housing and displacement

Looking ahead, experts expect 2026 to be another costly year for weather-related disasters. Even if the number of wildfires does not break records, the financial impact of a single event can still be devastating for individual households.

Wildfire risk by region: what to watch in 2026

Wildfire risk varies significantly depending on location, weather patterns, and vegetation conditions. National forecasts suggest that much of the U.S. will see seasonally low wildfire potential through early 2026, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. However, several regions deserve closer attention due to underlying conditions that can quickly escalate risk.

Western states: near-normal risk still requires vigilance

California and the Pacific Northwest are expected to experience near-normal wildfire potential through March 2026, supported by cooler temperatures and recent precipitation. While this may sound reassuring, near-normal conditions do not mean wildfires are unlikely or low-impact.

Years of drought, dense vegetation growth, and expanding development in wildland-urban interface areas mean that when fires ignite, they can spread rapidly and threaten entire neighborhoods. Conditions can also change quickly with heat waves, dry winds, or delayed rainfall later in the year.

Southwest and Southern Plains: fast-moving grass fires

Parts of eastern New Mexico and Texas may see above-normal wildfire potential by late winter, driven by dry conditions, abundant grasses, and stronger wind events. Grass fires in these regions can move extremely fast, often leaving little time to prepare or evacuate.

Even when homes are not destroyed, these fires can cause smoke damage, power outages, road closures, and temporary displacement.

The Southeast: an underestimated wildfire risk

The Southeast is expected to face elevated wildfire risk heading into 2026, particularly across Florida, Georgia, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the southern Appalachians. Persistent drought, low soil moisture, and dry vegetation are contributing to above-normal fire potential in these areas.

Because wildfire is often overlooked as a threat in the Southeast, homeowners may be less prepared, both physically and financially, when fires occur.

Why wildfire preparedness matters, even in average years

One of the biggest misconceptions about wildfires is that catastrophic losses only happen during record-breaking fire seasons. In reality, one wind-driven fire in a populated area can cause billions of dollars in damage within days.
For homeowners, wildfire-related costs often extend far beyond direct fire damage. Common expenses include:

• Evacuation and emergency travel costs
• Temporary housing and extended displacement
• Smoke and ash cleanup
• Loss of landscaping, fencing, and outdoor structures
• Higher rebuilding costs due to labor and material shortages

Even homes that survive fires may be uninhabitable for weeks or months due to smoke damage or nearby infrastructure disruption.

How homeowners can take steps to reduce wildfire risk 

While no home can be completely fireproof, these proactive steps can significantly reduce risk and improve recovery outcomes. 

1. Create and maintain defensible space

Defensible space helps slow the spread of wildfire and reduces the likelihood that flames or embers will ignite a home. Homeowners should:

• Clear dry leaves, pine needles, and debris within at least 30 feet of the home
• Space trees and shrubs to prevent continuous fuel paths
• Remove dead vegetation regularly, especially during dry periods